CSpace
A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade
Sun, Yuying1; Zhang, Xun2; Wang, Shouyang3
2020-04-18
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
ISSN1009-6124
Pages17
AbstractAnalyzing the underlying characteristics of trade values movements has attracted much attention in the domestic research. However, the proposed understanding of these characteristics is limited by the intrinsic complexity of the imports/exports. Since economic systems are naturally organized by hierarchies, a novel hierarchical model is proposed in this paper to forecast China's foreign trade. First, the foreign trade data are disaggregated from perspectives of trading partners and trading products, forming two independent hierarchical models with total exports and imports as target variables. Second, a bottom-up strategy is applied. All bottom time series are modelled by corresponding control variables according to trading theories. Forecasts for bottom time series are then combined to generate initial forecasts for total exports and imports. Finally, forecasts for total imports and exports from the two hierarchical models, plus a single VECM model are combined to generate final forecasts. Empirical experiments show that this proposed forecasting model approach significantly outperforms benchmark models and produces consistent forecasts for both total imports and exports or detailed items, which helps a lot for analyzing future trading structure evolution and making foreign trade policies.
KeywordDecomposed and combined models exports and imports forecasts hierarchy trade structure
DOI10.1007/s11424-020-8070-y
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71573251] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71703156] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Center of Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS ; Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistics, Xiamen University[201601]
WOS Research AreaMathematics
WOS SubjectMathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000527448000001
PublisherSPRINGER HEIDELBERG
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51373
Collection中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Xun
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,Wang, Shouyang. A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2020:17.
APA Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,&Wang, Shouyang.(2020).A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,17.
MLA Sun, Yuying,et al."A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2020):17.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Sun, Yuying]'s Articles
[Zhang, Xun]'s Articles
[Wang, Shouyang]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Sun, Yuying]'s Articles
[Zhang, Xun]'s Articles
[Wang, Shouyang]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Sun, Yuying]'s Articles
[Zhang, Xun]'s Articles
[Wang, Shouyang]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.