A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade

doi:10.1007/s11424-020-8070-y

CSpace

	A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade
	Sun, Yuying 1; Zhang, Xun 2; Wang, Shouyang 3
	2020-04-18
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
ISSN	1009-6124
页码	17
摘要	Analyzing the underlying characteristics of trade values movements has attracted much attention in the domestic research. However, the proposed understanding of these characteristics is limited by the intrinsic complexity of the imports/exports. Since economic systems are naturally organized by hierarchies, a novel hierarchical model is proposed in this paper to forecast China's foreign trade. First, the foreign trade data are disaggregated from perspectives of trading partners and trading products, forming two independent hierarchical models with total exports and imports as target variables. Second, a bottom-up strategy is applied. All bottom time series are modelled by corresponding control variables according to trading theories. Forecasts for bottom time series are then combined to generate initial forecasts for total exports and imports. Finally, forecasts for total imports and exports from the two hierarchical models, plus a single VECM model are combined to generate final forecasts. Empirical experiments show that this proposed forecasting model approach significantly outperforms benchmark models and produces consistent forecasts for both total imports and exports or detailed items, which helps a lot for analyzing future trading structure evolution and making foreign trade policies.
关键词	Decomposed and combined models exports and imports forecasts hierarchy trade structure
DOI	10.1007/s11424-020-8070-y
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71573251] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71703156] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Center of Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS ; Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Statistics, Xiamen University[201601]
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS记录号	WOS:000527448000001
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51373
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Zhang, Xun
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,Wang, Shouyang. A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2020:17.
APA	Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Xun,&Wang, Shouyang.(2020).A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,17.
MLA	Sun, Yuying,et al."A Hierarchical Forecasting Model for China's Foreign Trade".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2020):17.