Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?

doi:10.1007/s11424-022-1015-x

CSpace

	Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?
	Bai Yun 1,2; Wang Shouyang 1,3; Zhang Xun 1,3
	2022-06-20
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
ISSN	1009-6124
页码	24
摘要	Business survey, which starts from the microeconomic level, is a widely used short-term forecasting tool in practice. In this study, the authors examine whether foreign trade survey data collected by China's Ministry of Commerce would provide reliable forecasts of China's foreign trade. The research procedure is designed from three perspectives including forecast information test, turning point forecast, and out-of-sample value forecast. First, Granger causality test detects whether survey data lead exports and imports. Second, business cycle analysis, a non-model based method, is performed. The authors construct composite indexes with business survey data to forecast turning points of foreign trade. Third, model-based numerical forecasting methods, including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) and the artificial neural networks (ANNs) models are estimated. Empirical results show that survey data granger cause imports and exports, the leading composite index provides signal for changes of trade cycles, and quantitative models including survey data generate more accurate forecasts than benchmark models. It is concluded that trade survey data has excellent predictive capabilities for imports and exports, which can offer some priorities for government policy-making and enterprise decision making.
关键词	ARIMAX artificial neural network composite index forecasting foreign trade Granger causality test survey data
DOI	10.1007/s11424-022-1015-x
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS记录号	WOS:000813601100006
出版者	SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/61212
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Bai Yun
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bai Yun,Wang Shouyang,Zhang Xun. Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2022:24.
APA	Bai Yun,Wang Shouyang,&Zhang Xun.(2022).Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,24.
MLA	Bai Yun,et al."Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2022):24.