IMPROVING MULTI-STEP AHEAD TOURISM DEMAND FORECASTING: A STRATEGY-DRIVEN APPROACH

doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118465

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	IMPROVING MULTI-STEP AHEAD TOURISM DEMAND FORECASTING: A STRATEGY-DRIVEN APPROACH
	Sun, Shaolong 1; Du, Zongjuan 1; Zhang, Chengyuan 2; Wang, Shouyang 3
	2022-12-30
发表期刊	EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
ISSN	0957-4174
卷号	210 页码:34
摘要	Previous researches have proposed five strategies to deal with complex multi-step ahead forecasting tasks. However, these strategies have not received much attention in the field of tourism research and the performance of them is still unknown. Accordingly, we summarize the strategies used in multi-step ahead tourism demand forecasting articles and produce a comparative analysis of five strategies. By employing nine tourist arrival time series in Hong Kong, the study explores the performance of different strategy-driven forecasting approaches in tourism demand. The empirical results show that Direct and DIRMO (s=2) strategies perform better than other strategies in terms of forecasting accuracy, but there is no significant difference between them, excepting the latter is lower than the former in computational complexity.
关键词	Tourism demand forecasting Multi-step ahead strategies MIMO DIRMO Extreme learning machine
DOI	10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118465
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; [72101197] ; [71988101] ; [SK2021007]
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS类目	Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Engineering, Electrical & Electronic ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS记录号	WOS:000880668000011
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/60629
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Sun, Shaolong
作者单位	1.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710049, Peoples R China 2.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710126, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Shaolong,Du, Zongjuan,Zhang, Chengyuan,et al. IMPROVING MULTI-STEP AHEAD TOURISM DEMAND FORECASTING: A STRATEGY-DRIVEN APPROACH[J]. EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS,2022,210:34.
APA	Sun, Shaolong,Du, Zongjuan,Zhang, Chengyuan,&Wang, Shouyang.(2022).IMPROVING MULTI-STEP AHEAD TOURISM DEMAND FORECASTING: A STRATEGY-DRIVEN APPROACH.EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS,210,34.
MLA	Sun, Shaolong,et al."IMPROVING MULTI-STEP AHEAD TOURISM DEMAND FORECASTING: A STRATEGY-DRIVEN APPROACH".EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS 210(2022):34.