A discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain based in-play prediction model for NBA basketball matches

doi:10.1080/03610918.2019.1633351

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	A discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain based in-play prediction model for NBA basketball matches
	Shi, Jian 1,2; Song, Kai 1,2
	2021-11-02
发表期刊	COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION
ISSN	0361-0918
卷号	50 期号:11 页码:3768-3776
摘要	In this article, a discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain model is developed to fit the NBA basketball data. It can be used to produce in-play prediction for basketball matches. An iterative algorithm is designed to calculate probabilities of the final score difference. Empirical study shows that the proposed model performs well, and more profoundly it can have positive return when we bet with the market.
关键词	Betting In-play predictions Markov chain Positive returns Uncertainty analysis
DOI	10.1080/03610918.2019.1633351
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Statistics & Probability
WOS记录号	WOS:000715739100019
出版者	TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59528
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Song, Kai
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shi, Jian,Song, Kai. A discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain based in-play prediction model for NBA basketball matches[J]. COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,2021,50(11):3768-3776.
APA	Shi, Jian,&Song, Kai.(2021).A discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain based in-play prediction model for NBA basketball matches.COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,50(11),3768-3776.
MLA	Shi, Jian,et al."A discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain based in-play prediction model for NBA basketball matches".COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION 50.11(2021):3768-3776.