Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit

doi:10.1126/science.aba8767

CSpace

	Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit
	Duan, Hongbo 1; Zhou, Sheng 2; Jiang, Kejun 3; Bertram, Christoph 4; Harmsen, Mathijs 5,6; Kriegler, Elmar 4,7; van Vuuren, Detlef P.5,6; Wang, Shouyang 1,8; Fujimori, Shinichiro 9,10,11; Tavoni, Massimo 12,13; Ming, Xi 1; Keramidas, Kimon 14; Iyer, Gokul 15,16; Edmonds, James 15,16
	2021-04-23
发表期刊	SCIENCE
ISSN	0036-8075
卷号	372 期号:6540 页码:378-+
摘要	Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees C, a key question is what this would mean for China's emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5 degrees C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the "no policy" case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China's accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5 degrees C warming limit.
DOI	10.1126/science.aba8767
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72022019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874096] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2020YFA0608603] ; Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan[JPMEERF20202002]
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000645009800037
出版者	AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/58735
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Duan, Hongbo; Zhou, Sheng; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wang, Shouyang
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Energy Environm & Econ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Macroecon Res, Energy Res Inst, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 4.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany 5.Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy PBL, Postbus 30314, The Hague, Netherlands 6.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, POB 80125, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands 7.Univ Potsdam, Fac Econ & Social Sci, D-14482 Potsdam, Germany 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 9.Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto 6158540, Japan 10.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan 11.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria 12.Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, I-20123 Milan, Italy 13.Fdn Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, RFF CMCC European Inst Econ & Environm, I-20123 Milan, Italy 14.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, E-41092 Seville, Spain 15.Univ Maryland, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA 16.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duan, Hongbo,Zhou, Sheng,Jiang, Kejun,et al. Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit[J]. SCIENCE,2021,372(6540):378-+.
APA	Duan, Hongbo.,Zhou, Sheng.,Jiang, Kejun.,Bertram, Christoph.,Harmsen, Mathijs.,...&Edmonds, James.(2021).Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit.SCIENCE,372(6540),378-+.
MLA	Duan, Hongbo,et al."Assessing China's efforts to pursue the 1.5 degrees C warming limit".SCIENCE 372.6540(2021):378-+.