CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING WITH TEI@I METHODOLOGY

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	CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING WITH TEI@I METHODOLOGY
其他题名	Crude oil price forecasting WITH TEI@I METHODOLOGY
	K K Lai 1; Wang Shouyang 2; Yu Lean 2
	2005
发表期刊	系统科学与复杂性：英文版
ISSN	1009-6124
卷号	18.0 期号:002 页码:145-166
摘要	The difficulty in crude oil price forecasting, due to inherent complexity, has attracted much attention of academic researchers and business practitioners. Various methods have been tried to solve the problem of forecasting crude oil prices. However, all of the existing models of prediction can not meet practical needs. Very recently, Wang and Yu proposed a new methodology for handling complex systems-TEI@I methodology by means of a systematic integration of text mining, econometrics and intelligent techniques.Within the framework of TEI@I methodology, econometrical models are used to model the linear components of crude oil price time series (i.e., main trends) while nonlinear components of crude oil price time series (i.e., error terms) are modelled by using artificial neural network (ANN) models. In addition, the impact of irregular and infrequent future events on crude oil price is explored using web-based text mining (WTM) and rule-based expert systems (RES) techniques. Thus, a fully novel nonlinear integrated forecasting approach with error correction and judgmental adjustment is formulated to improve prediction performance within the framework of the TEI@I methodology. The proposed methodology and the novel forecasting approach are illustrated via an example.
其他摘要	The difficulty in crude oil price forecasting, due to inherent complexity, has attracted much attention of academic researchers and business practitioners. Various meth-ods have been tried to solve the problem of forecasting crude oil prices. However, all of the existing models of prediction can not meet practical needs. Very recently, Wang and Yu proposed a new methodology for handling complex systems-TEI@I methodology by means of a systematic integration of text mining, econometrics and intelligent techniques. Within the framework of TEI@I methodology, econometrical models are used to model the linear components of crude oil price time series (i.e., main trends) while nonlinear compo-nents of crude oil price time series (i.e., error terms) are modelled by using artificial neural network (ANN) models. In addition, the impact of irregular and infrequent future events on crude oil price is explored using web-based text mining (WTM) and rule-based expert systems (RES) techniques. Thus, a fully novel nonlinear integrated forecasting approach with error correction and judgmental adjustment is formulated to improve prediction per-formance within the framework of the TEMI methodology. The proposed methodology and the novel forecasting approach are illustrated via an example.
关键词	世界原油产品价格预测方法市场分析经济计量学
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
CSCD记录号	CSCD:1956262
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/56623
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
作者单位	1.香港城市大学 2.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	K K Lai,Wang Shouyang,Yu Lean. CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING WITH TEI@I METHODOLOGY[J]. 系统科学与复杂性：英文版,2005,18.0(002):145-166.
APA	K K Lai,Wang Shouyang,&Yu Lean.(2005).CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING WITH TEI@I METHODOLOGY.系统科学与复杂性：英文版,18.0(002),145-166.
MLA	K K Lai,et al."CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING WITH TEI@I METHODOLOGY".系统科学与复杂性：英文版 18.0.002(2005):145-166.