Forecasting container throughput of Qingdao port with a hybrid model

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	Forecasting container throughput of Qingdao port with a hybrid model
其他题名	Forecasting Container Throughput of Qingdao Port with a Hybrid Model
	Huang Anqiang 1; Lai Kinkeung 2; Li Yinhua 3; Wang Shouyang 4
	2015
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
ISSN	1009-6124
卷号	28 期号:1 页码:105-121
摘要	This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting method to forecast container throughput of Qingdao Port. To eliminate the influence of outliers, local outlier factor (lof) is extended to detect outliers in time series, and then different dummy variables are constructed to capture the effect of outliers based on domain knowledge. Next, a hybrid forecasting model combining projection pursuit regression (PPR) and genetic programming (GP) algorithm is proposed. Finally, the hybrid model is applied to forecasting container throughput of Qingdao Port and the results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms ANN, SARIMA, and PPR models.
其他摘要	This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting method to forecast container throughput of Qingdao Port. To eliminate the influence of outliers, local outlier factor (lof) is extended to detect outliers in time series, and then different dummy variables are constructed to capture the effect of outliers based on domain knowledge. Next, a hybrid forecasting model combining projection pursuit regression (PPR) and genetic programming (GP) algorithm is proposed. Finally, the hybrid model is applied to forecasting container throughput of Qingdao Port and the results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms ANN, SARIMA, and PPR models.
关键词	PROJECTION PURSUIT REGRESSION WAVELET-BASED DETECTION FINANCIAL TIME-SERIES OUTLIER DETECTION GENETIC ALGORITHMS NOVELTY DETECTION NEURAL-NETWORKS PREDICTION Container throughput forecast genetic programming algorithm outlier processing projection pursuit regression
收录类别	CSCD
语种	英语
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5385395
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/53305
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
作者单位	1.北京航空航天大学 2.伦敦城市大学 3.中国科学院 4.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang Anqiang,Lai Kinkeung,Li Yinhua,et al. Forecasting container throughput of Qingdao port with a hybrid model[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2015,28(1):105-121.
APA	Huang Anqiang,Lai Kinkeung,Li Yinhua,&Wang Shouyang.(2015).Forecasting container throughput of Qingdao port with a hybrid model.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,28(1),105-121.
MLA	Huang Anqiang,et al."Forecasting container throughput of Qingdao port with a hybrid model".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY 28.1(2015):105-121.