KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
| Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games | |
| Song, Kai1,2; Zou, Qingrong1,2; Shi, Jian1,2 | |
| 2020-10-02 | |
| Source Publication | COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION
 |
| ISSN | 0361-0918 |
| Volume | 49Issue:10Pages:2604-2616 |
| Abstract | This paper investigates the problem of modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games based on performance statistics. A bivariate normal mean regression model is developed to model the scores and performance statistics. Two methods for forecasting the performance statistics ex ante are proposed in order to predict the outcomes of NBA basketball games, including the final scores of two teams and the probability that a specific team wins the game. Besides, a betting strategy is developed and efficiency tests in the handicap betting market are conducted. Empirical study shows that the proposed model works well. |
| Keyword | NBA outcome forecast Bivariate normal mean regression Performance statistics Betting strategy Market efficiency tests |
| DOI | 10.1080/03610918.2018.1520878 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| WOS Research Area | Mathematics |
| WOS Subject | Statistics & Probability |
| WOS ID | WOS:000583996000006 |
| Publisher | TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/52389 |
| Collection | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| Corresponding Author | Shi, Jian |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Song, Kai,Zou, Qingrong,Shi, Jian. Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games[J]. COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,2020,49(10):2604-2616. |
| APA | Song, Kai,Zou, Qingrong,&Shi, Jian.(2020).Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games.COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,49(10),2604-2616. |
| MLA | Song, Kai,et al."Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games".COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION 49.10(2020):2604-2616. |
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