KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games | |
Song, Kai1,2; Zou, Qingrong1,2; Shi, Jian1,2 | |
2020-10-02 | |
发表期刊 | COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION |
ISSN | 0361-0918 |
卷号 | 49期号:10页码:2604-2616 |
摘要 | This paper investigates the problem of modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games based on performance statistics. A bivariate normal mean regression model is developed to model the scores and performance statistics. Two methods for forecasting the performance statistics ex ante are proposed in order to predict the outcomes of NBA basketball games, including the final scores of two teams and the probability that a specific team wins the game. Besides, a betting strategy is developed and efficiency tests in the handicap betting market are conducted. Empirical study shows that the proposed model works well. |
关键词 | NBA outcome forecast Bivariate normal mean regression Performance statistics Betting strategy Market efficiency tests |
DOI | 10.1080/03610918.2018.1520878 |
收录类别 | SCI |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS研究方向 | Mathematics |
WOS类目 | Statistics & Probability |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000583996000006 |
出版者 | TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/52389 |
专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
通讯作者 | Shi, Jian |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Song, Kai,Zou, Qingrong,Shi, Jian. Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games[J]. COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,2020,49(10):2604-2616. |
APA | Song, Kai,Zou, Qingrong,&Shi, Jian.(2020).Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games.COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,49(10),2604-2616. |
MLA | Song, Kai,et al."Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games".COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION 49.10(2020):2604-2616. |
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