Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games

doi:10.1080/03610918.2018.1520878

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	Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games
	Song, Kai 1,2; Zou, Qingrong 1,2; Shi, Jian 1,2
	2020-10-02
发表期刊	COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION
ISSN	0361-0918
卷号	49 期号:10 页码:2604-2616
摘要	This paper investigates the problem of modeling and forecasting the outcomes of NBA basketball games based on performance statistics. A bivariate normal mean regression model is developed to model the scores and performance statistics. Two methods for forecasting the performance statistics ex ante are proposed in order to predict the outcomes of NBA basketball games, including the final scores of two teams and the probability that a specific team wins the game. Besides, a betting strategy is developed and efficiency tests in the handicap betting market are conducted. Empirical study shows that the proposed model works well.
关键词	NBA outcome forecast Bivariate normal mean regression Performance statistics Betting strategy Market efficiency tests
DOI	10.1080/03610918.2018.1520878
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Statistics & Probability
WOS记录号	WOS:000583996000006
出版者	TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/52389
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Shi, Jian
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song, Kai,Zou, Qingrong,Shi, Jian. Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games[J]. COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,2020,49(10):2604-2616.
APA	Song, Kai,Zou, Qingrong,&Shi, Jian.(2020).Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games.COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,49(10),2604-2616.
MLA	Song, Kai,et al."Modelling the scores and performance statistics of NBA basketball games".COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION 49.10(2020):2604-2616.