KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
| A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes | |
| Zou, Qingrong1; Song, Kai2,3; Shi, Jian2,3 | |
| 2020-02-01 | |
| Source Publication | APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
 |
| Volume | 10Issue:8Pages:18 |
| Abstract | Point process models have made a significant contribution to the prediction of football association outcomes. It is conventionally the case that defence and attack capabilities have been assumed to be constant during a match and estimated against the average performance of all other teams in history. Drawing upon a Bayesian method, this paper proposes a dynamic strength model which relaxes assumption of the constant teams' strengths and permits applying in-match performance information to calibrate them. An empirical study demonstrates that although the Bayesian model fails to achieve improvement in goal difference prediction, it registers clear achievements with regard to the prediction of the total number of goals and Win/Draw/Loss outcome prediction. When the Bayesian model bets against the SBOBet bookmaker, one of the most popular gaming companies among Asian handicaps fans, whose odds data were obtained from both the Win/Draw/Loss market and over-under market, it may obtain positive returns; this clearly contrasts with the process model with constant strengths, which fails to win money from the bookmaker. |
| Keyword | bayesian inference point process model in-play prediction betting market adjusting forecast association football |
| DOI | 10.3390/app10082904 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Major Project[2017ZX06002006] |
| WOS Research Area | Chemistry ; Engineering ; Materials Science ; Physics |
| WOS Subject | Chemistry, Multidisciplinary ; Engineering, Multidisciplinary ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary ; Physics, Applied |
| WOS ID | WOS:000533352100268 |
| Publisher | MDPI |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51534 |
| Collection | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| Corresponding Author | Shi, Jian |
| Affiliation | 1.Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zou, Qingrong,Song, Kai,Shi, Jian. A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes[J]. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,2020,10(8):18. |
| APA | Zou, Qingrong,Song, Kai,&Shi, Jian.(2020).A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes.APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,10(8),18. |
| MLA | Zou, Qingrong,et al."A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes".APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 10.8(2020):18. |
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