A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes

doi:10.3390/app10082904

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	A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes
	Zou, Qingrong 1; Song, Kai 2,3; Shi, Jian 2,3
	2020-02-01
发表期刊	APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL
卷号	10 期号:8 页码:18
摘要	Point process models have made a significant contribution to the prediction of football association outcomes. It is conventionally the case that defence and attack capabilities have been assumed to be constant during a match and estimated against the average performance of all other teams in history. Drawing upon a Bayesian method, this paper proposes a dynamic strength model which relaxes assumption of the constant teams' strengths and permits applying in-match performance information to calibrate them. An empirical study demonstrates that although the Bayesian model fails to achieve improvement in goal difference prediction, it registers clear achievements with regard to the prediction of the total number of goals and Win/Draw/Loss outcome prediction. When the Bayesian model bets against the SBOBet bookmaker, one of the most popular gaming companies among Asian handicaps fans, whose odds data were obtained from both the Win/Draw/Loss market and over-under market, it may obtain positive returns; this clearly contrasts with the process model with constant strengths, which fails to win money from the bookmaker.
关键词	bayesian inference point process model in-play prediction betting market adjusting forecast association football
DOI	10.3390/app10082904
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Major Project[2017ZX06002006]
WOS研究方向	Chemistry ; Engineering ; Materials Science ; Physics
WOS类目	Chemistry, Multidisciplinary ; Engineering, Multidisciplinary ; Materials Science, Multidisciplinary ; Physics, Applied
WOS记录号	WOS:000533352100268
出版者	MDPI
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51534
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Shi, Jian
作者单位	1.Beijing Informat Sci & Technol Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Beijing 100192, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zou, Qingrong,Song, Kai,Shi, Jian. A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes[J]. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,2020,10(8):18.
APA	Zou, Qingrong,Song, Kai,&Shi, Jian.(2020).A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes.APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL,10(8),18.
MLA	Zou, Qingrong,et al."A Bayesian In-Play Prediction Model for Association Football Outcomes".APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL 10.8(2020):18.