KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
| A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games | |
| Song, Kai1,2; Shi, Jian1,2 | |
| 2020-06-01 | |
| Source Publication | EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
 |
| ISSN | 0377-2217 |
| Volume | 283Issue:2Pages:706-713 |
| Abstract | This paper presents an in-play prediction model based on the gamma process for the scoring processes of the National Basketball Association matches. The model is team-specific, i.e., it takes account of the relative strengths of the two teams playing in a match. The dependence between the home and away scoring processes is characterized by a common latent variable. A Bayesian dynamic forecasting procedure for future games is developed, which utilizes the in-match information to update the scale parameter of the model as the match progresses. An evaluation against baseline models is provided in an empirical study. Our proposed model can predict the final score and total points, while the baseline models are unable to make such predictions. Furthermore, our model can produce positive returns on the point spread betting market and the over-under betting market. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| Keyword | OR in sports Gamma process in-play prediction Bayesian method Betting |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ejor.2019.11.012 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| WOS Research Area | Business & Economics ; Operations Research & Management Science |
| WOS Subject | Management ; Operations Research & Management Science |
| WOS ID | WOS:000515445500021 |
| Publisher | ELSEVIER |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/50893 |
| Collection | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| Corresponding Author | Shi, Jian |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Song, Kai,Shi, Jian. A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games[J]. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH,2020,283(2):706-713. |
| APA | Song, Kai,&Shi, Jian.(2020).A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH,283(2),706-713. |
| MLA | Song, Kai,et al."A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH 283.2(2020):706-713. |
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