A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games

doi:10.1016/j.ejor.2019.11.012

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	A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games
	Song, Kai 1,2; Shi, Jian 1,2
	2020-06-01
发表期刊	EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
ISSN	0377-2217
卷号	283 期号:2 页码:706-713
摘要	This paper presents an in-play prediction model based on the gamma process for the scoring processes of the National Basketball Association matches. The model is team-specific, i.e., it takes account of the relative strengths of the two teams playing in a match. The dependence between the home and away scoring processes is characterized by a common latent variable. A Bayesian dynamic forecasting procedure for future games is developed, which utilizes the in-match information to update the scale parameter of the model as the match progresses. An evaluation against baseline models is provided in an empirical study. Our proposed model can predict the final score and total points, while the baseline models are unable to make such predictions. Furthermore, our model can produce positive returns on the point spread betting market and the over-under betting market. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	OR in sports Gamma process in-play prediction Bayesian method Betting
DOI	10.1016/j.ejor.2019.11.012
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS类目	Management ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS记录号	WOS:000515445500021
出版者	ELSEVIER
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/50893
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Shi, Jian
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song, Kai,Shi, Jian. A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games[J]. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH,2020,283(2):706-713.
APA	Song, Kai,&Shi, Jian.(2020).A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH,283(2),706-713.
MLA	Song, Kai,et al."A gamma process based in-play prediction model for National Basketball Association games".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH 283.2(2020):706-713.