predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication

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	predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication
	Liang Xiaozhen 1; Liu Xiuli2 ; Yang Fengmei 3
	2015
发表期刊	journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity
ISSN	1009-6124
卷号	28 期号:2 页码:409
摘要	In this paper, a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established. With cointegration test, backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods, four main factors (hog price, prices of inputs in hog production, the level of hog inventory, as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement. Applied the improved model, annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios. The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016, there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year. The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head, in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head, in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head, and in 2016 between 750.923 and 809.450 million head.
语种	英语
资助项目	[National Key Technology RD Program] ; [National Natural Science Foundation of China]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/45341
专题	系统科学研究所
作者单位	1.北京航空航天大学 2.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 3.北京化工大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang Xiaozhen,Liu Xiuli,Yang Fengmei. predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication[J]. journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity,2015,28(2):409.
APA	Liang Xiaozhen,Liu Xiuli,&Yang Fengmei.(2015).predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication.journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity,28(2),409.
MLA	Liang Xiaozhen,et al."predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication".journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity 28.2(2015):409.