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Liang Xiaozhen1; Liu Xiuli2; Yang Fengmei3
Source Publicationjournalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity
AbstractIn this paper, a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established. With cointegration test, backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods, four main factors (hog price, prices of inputs in hog production, the level of hog inventory, as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement. Applied the improved model, annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios. The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016, there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year. The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head, in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head, in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head, and in 2016 between 750.923 and 809.450 million head.
Funding Project[National Key Technology RD Program] ; [National Natural Science Foundation of China]
Document Type期刊论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liang Xiaozhen,Liu Xiuli,Yang Fengmei. predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication[J]. journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity,2015,28(2):409.
APA Liang Xiaozhen,Liu Xiuli,&Yang Fengmei.(2015).predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication.journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity,28(2),409.
MLA Liang Xiaozhen,et al."predictionmodelonchineseannuallivehogsupplyanditsapplication".journalofsystemsscienceandcomplexity 28.2(2015):409.
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