China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend

doi:10.3390/su11143928

CSpace > 国家数学与交叉科学中心

	China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend
	Ma, Lin 1; Wu, Manhua 1; Tian, Xiujuan 1; Zheng, Guanheng 2; Du, Qinchuan 3; Wu, Tian4,5,6
	2019-07-02
发表期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
卷号	11 期号:14 页码:26
摘要	The growth of vehicle ownership not only brings opportunity for the economy, but also brings environment and transport problems, which is not good for sustainable transportation. It is of great significance to build supporting infrastructure and other services based on accurate forecasts of vehicle ownership in various provinces because of the variance of economic development stages, the carrying capacity of resources, and different degrees of transport planning in each province. We used the Gompertz model in order to predict China's provincial vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2050. Considering the impact of the population structure, we summed up the growth rate of GDP per labor, the growth rate of population and the growth rate of employment rate to get the growth rate of GDP and then the GDP per capita of each province. We found that the vehicle ownership in each province will grow rapidly in the next 30 years; however, the change in the ranking of vehicle ownership among provinces varies. The ranking of some provinces with high or middle ranking now will decline in the following years, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Xinjiang. While the ranking of some provinces that locates in the middle and low ranking now will increase, such as Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi. We also investigate the reasons that affect the trend in each province and we find that the suitable vehicle growth pattern of each province, the stage of economic development and government policy, which are related to the growth rate of GDP per labor, employment rate, and GDP per capita, can affect vehicle ownership in the future.
关键词	vehicle ownership forecast Gompertz model GDP per capita trends comparison cause analysis
DOI	10.3390/su11143928
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71703022] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71804181] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71774095] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:000482261800172
出版者	MDPI
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/33319
专题	国家数学与交叉科学中心
通讯作者	Wu, Tian
作者单位	1.Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Banking & Finance, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China 3.Natl Dev & Reform Commiss, Acad Macroecon Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, NCMIS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Big Data Min & Knowledge Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma, Lin,Wu, Manhua,Tian, Xiujuan,et al. China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(14):26.
APA	Ma, Lin,Wu, Manhua,Tian, Xiujuan,Zheng, Guanheng,Du, Qinchuan,&Wu, Tian.(2019).China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend.SUSTAINABILITY,11(14),26.
MLA	Ma, Lin,et al."China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend".SUSTAINABILITY 11.14(2019):26.