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China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend
Ma, Lin1; Wu, Manhua1; Tian, Xiujuan1; Zheng, Guanheng2; Du, Qinchuan3; Wu, Tian4,5,6
2019-07-02
Source PublicationSUSTAINABILITY
Volume11Issue:14Pages:26
AbstractThe growth of vehicle ownership not only brings opportunity for the economy, but also brings environment and transport problems, which is not good for sustainable transportation. It is of great significance to build supporting infrastructure and other services based on accurate forecasts of vehicle ownership in various provinces because of the variance of economic development stages, the carrying capacity of resources, and different degrees of transport planning in each province. We used the Gompertz model in order to predict China's provincial vehicle ownership from 2018 to 2050. Considering the impact of the population structure, we summed up the growth rate of GDP per labor, the growth rate of population and the growth rate of employment rate to get the growth rate of GDP and then the GDP per capita of each province. We found that the vehicle ownership in each province will grow rapidly in the next 30 years; however, the change in the ranking of vehicle ownership among provinces varies. The ranking of some provinces with high or middle ranking now will decline in the following years, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Xinjiang. While the ranking of some provinces that locates in the middle and low ranking now will increase, such as Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Guangxi. We also investigate the reasons that affect the trend in each province and we find that the suitable vehicle growth pattern of each province, the stage of economic development and government policy, which are related to the growth rate of GDP per labor, employment rate, and GDP per capita, can affect vehicle ownership in the future.
Keywordvehicle ownership forecast Gompertz model GDP per capita trends comparison cause analysis
DOI10.3390/su11143928
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[71703022] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71804181] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71774095] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectGreen & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS IDWOS:000482261800172
PublisherMDPI
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/33319
Collection国家数学与交叉科学中心
Corresponding AuthorWu, Tian
Affiliation1.Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Banking & Finance, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
3.Natl Dev & Reform Commiss, Acad Macroecon Res, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, NCMIS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Big Data Min & Knowledge Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Ma, Lin,Wu, Manhua,Tian, Xiujuan,et al. China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend[J]. SUSTAINABILITY,2019,11(14):26.
APA Ma, Lin,Wu, Manhua,Tian, Xiujuan,Zheng, Guanheng,Du, Qinchuan,&Wu, Tian.(2019).China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend.SUSTAINABILITY,11(14),26.
MLA Ma, Lin,et al."China's Provincial Vehicle Ownership Forecast and Analysis of the Causes Influencing the Trend".SUSTAINABILITY 11.14(2019):26.
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