Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China

doi:10.1080/03088839.2018.1476741

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	Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China
	Xie, Gang1 ; Qian, Yatong 1,2; Yang, Hewei 1
	2019-02-17
发表期刊	MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0308-8839
卷号	46 期号:2 页码:178-200
摘要	To improve predictive accuracy, new hybrid models are proposed for container throughput forecasting based on wavelet transforms and data characteristic analysis (DCA) within a decomposition-ensemble methodology. Because of the complexity and nonlinearity of the time series of container throughputs at ports, the methodology decomposes the original time series into several components, which are rather simpler sub-sequences. Consequently, difficult forecasting tasks are simplified into a number of relatively easier subtasks. In this way, the proposed hybrid models can improve the accuracy of forecasting significantly. In the methodology, four main steps are involved: data decomposition, component reconstruction based on the DCA, individual prediction for each reconstructed component, and ensemble prediction as the final output. An empirical analysis was conducted for illustration and verification purposes by using time series of container throughputs at three main ports in Bohai Rim, China. The results suggest that the proposed hybrid models are able to forecast better than do other benchmark models. Forecasting may facilitate effective real-time decision making for strategic management and policy drafting. Predictions of container throughput can help port managers make tactical and operational decisions, such as operations planning in ports, the scheduling of port equipment, and route optimization.
关键词	Container throughput wavelet transform data characteristic analysis time series forecasting decomposition-ensemble methodology
DOI	10.1080/03088839.2018.1476741
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71372176] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390331] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS研究方向	Transportation
WOS类目	Transportation
WOS记录号	WOS:000453701300003
出版者	ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31851
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Xie, Gang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Yang, Hewei. Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China[J]. MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT,2019,46(2):178-200.
APA	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Yang, Hewei.(2019).Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China.MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT,46(2),178-200.
MLA	Xie, Gang,et al."Forecasting container throughput based on wavelet transforms within a decomposition-ensemble methodology: a case study of China".MARITIME POLICY & MANAGEMENT 46.2(2019):178-200.