Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index

doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2018.07.010

CSpace > 系统科学研究所

	Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index
	Sun, Shaolong 1,2,3; Wei, Yunjie1,4 ; Tsui, Kwok-Leung 3; Wang, Shouyang1,2,4
	2019-02-01
发表期刊	TOURISM MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0261-5177
卷号	70 页码:1-10
摘要	Previous studies have shown that online data, such as search engine queries, is a new source of data that can be used to forecast tourism demand. In this study, we propose a forecasting framework that uses machine learning and internet search indexes to forecast tourist arrivals for popular destinations in China and compared its forecasting performance to the search results generated by Google and Baidu, respectively. This study verifies the Granger causality and co-integration relationship between internet search index and tourist arrivals of Beijing. Our experimental results suggest that compared with benchmark models, the proposed kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) models, which integrate tourist volume series with Baidu Index and Google Index, can improve the forecasting performance significantly in terms of both forecasting accuracy and robustness analysis.
关键词	Tourism demand forecasting Kernel extreme learning machine Search query data Big data analytics Composite search index
DOI	10.1016/j.tourman.2018.07.010
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[51505307] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[11471275] ; General Research Fund[CityU 11216014] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[T32-101/15-R]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Business & Economics
WOS类目	Environmental Studies ; Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism ; Management
WOS记录号	WOS:000448096100001
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31689
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Wang, Shouyang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Zhongguancun East Rd 55, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Syst Engn & Engn Management, Tat Chee Ave, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Shaolong,Wei, Yunjie,Tsui, Kwok-Leung,et al. Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index[J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT,2019,70:1-10.
APA	Sun, Shaolong,Wei, Yunjie,Tsui, Kwok-Leung,&Wang, Shouyang.(2019).Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index.TOURISM MANAGEMENT,70,1-10.
MLA	Sun, Shaolong,et al."Forecasting tourist arrivals with machine learning and internet search index".TOURISM MANAGEMENT 70(2019):1-10.