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A discrete-time and finite-state Markov Chain model for association football matches
Zou, Qingrong1; Li, Qi2; Guo, Hao1; Shi, Jian1,3
2018
Source PublicationCOMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION
ISSN0361-0918
Volume47Issue:8Pages:2476-2485
AbstractA birth process model proposed by Dixon and Robinson has been widely used in football spread betting market. However, multiple goals in a minute are permitted in the model, which does not conform to historical record. Moreover, it is difficult to calculate the outcome probability of the process accurately. The article presents a discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain model for real-time forecast of football matches and a recursive algorithm is derived to calculate the outcome probability accurately. The empirical study shows that the proposed model outperforms the models of Dixon and Robinson and Dixon and Coles.
KeywordAssociation football Discrete-time and finite-state Markov chain Football outcome forecast Maximum likelihood Recursive algorithm 65C20 62M20 60J10 62P25
DOI10.1080/03610918.2017.1348518
Language英语
WOS Research AreaMathematics
WOS SubjectStatistics & Probability
WOS IDWOS:000441635000017
PublisherTAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/31159
Collection系统科学研究所
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Jilin Univ, Editorial Dept Journal, Changchun, Jilin, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zou, Qingrong,Li, Qi,Guo, Hao,et al. A discrete-time and finite-state Markov Chain model for association football matches[J]. COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,2018,47(8):2476-2485.
APA Zou, Qingrong,Li, Qi,Guo, Hao,&Shi, Jian.(2018).A discrete-time and finite-state Markov Chain model for association football matches.COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION,47(8),2476-2485.
MLA Zou, Qingrong,et al."A discrete-time and finite-state Markov Chain model for association football matches".COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-SIMULATION AND COMPUTATION 47.8(2018):2476-2485.
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