KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
A decomposition-clustering-ensemble learning approach for solar radiation forecasting | |
Sun, Shaolong1,2,3; Wang, Shouyang1,2,4; Zhang, Guowei1,2; Zheng, Jiali1,2 | |
2018-03-15 | |
发表期刊 | SOLAR ENERGY |
ISSN | 0038-092X |
卷号 | 163页码:189-199 |
摘要 | A decomposition-clustering-ensemble (DCE) learning approach is proposed for solar radiation forecasting in this paper. In the proposed DCE learning approach, (1) ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to decompose the original solar radiation data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual component; (2) least square support vector regression (LSSVR) is performed to forecast IMFs and residual component respectively with parameters optimized by gravitational search algorithm (GSA); (3) Kmeans method is adopted to cluster all component forecasting results; (4) another GSA-LSSVR method is applied to ensemble the component forecasts of each cluster and the final forecasting results are obtained by means of corresponding cluster's ensemble weights. To verify the performance of the proposed DCE learning approach, solar radiation data in Beijing is introduced for empirical analysis. The results of out-of-sample forecasting power show that the DCE learning approach produces smaller NRMSE, MAPE and better directional forecasts than all other benchmark models, reaching up to accuracy rate of 2.96%, 2.83% and 88.24% respectively in the one-day-ahead forecasting. This indicates that the proposed DCE learning approach is a relatively promising framework for forecasting solar radiation by means of level accuracy, directional accuracy and robustness. |
关键词 | Solar radiation forecasting Decomposition-clustering-ensemble learning approach Ensemble empirical mode decomposition Least square support vector regression |
DOI | 10.1016/j.solener.2018.02.006 |
语种 | 英语 |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71373262] |
WOS研究方向 | Energy & Fuels |
WOS类目 | Energy & Fuels |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000430519400021 |
出版者 | PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/30174 |
专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
通讯作者 | Wang, Shouyang |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Syst Engn & Engn Management, Tat Chee Ave, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Shaolong,Wang, Shouyang,Zhang, Guowei,et al. A decomposition-clustering-ensemble learning approach for solar radiation forecasting[J]. SOLAR ENERGY,2018,163:189-199. |
APA | Sun, Shaolong,Wang, Shouyang,Zhang, Guowei,&Zheng, Jiali.(2018).A decomposition-clustering-ensemble learning approach for solar radiation forecasting.SOLAR ENERGY,163,189-199. |
MLA | Sun, Shaolong,et al."A decomposition-clustering-ensemble learning approach for solar radiation forecasting".SOLAR ENERGY 163(2018):189-199. |
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