KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
Does Interval Knowledge Sharpen Forecasting Models? Evidence from China's Typical Ports | |
Huang, Anqiang1; Lai, Kin Keung2; Qiao, Han3; Wang, Shouyang3,4; Zhang, Zhenji1 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING |
ISSN | 0219-6220 |
卷号 | 17期号:2页码:467-483 |
摘要 | Substantial studies integrating experts' point knowledge with statistical forecasting modes have been implemented to investigate a long-lasting and disputing issue which is whether or not expert knowledge could improve forecasting performance. However, a large body of current forecasting studies neglect the application of experts' interval knowledge where experts are expected to be more competent, considering that humans do much better in fuzzy calculation like interval estimation than in accurate computation like point estimation. To fill in this gap, this paper first proposes a novel forecasting paradigm incorporating interval knowledge generated by a Delphi-based expert system into the SARIMA and SVR models. For validation purposes, the proposed paradigm is applied to several representative seaports from the top three dynamic economic regions in China. The empirical results clearly show that interval knowledge, following the proposed paradigm, significantly improves the forecasting performance. This finding implies that the proposed forecasting paradigm has the good potential to be an effective method for sharpening the statistical models for container throughput forecasting. |
关键词 | Container throughput forecasting interval knowledge SARIMA SVR |
DOI | 10.1142/S0219622017500456 |
语种 | 英语 |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71373262] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390330] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390331] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71132008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390334] ; "EC-China Research Network on Integrated Container Supply Chains" Project[612546] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[B15JB00040] |
WOS研究方向 | Computer Science ; Operations Research & Management Science |
WOS类目 | Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Information Systems ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Operations Research & Management Science |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428527400002 |
出版者 | WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/30152 |
专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
通讯作者 | Qiao, Han |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China 2.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Anqiang,Lai, Kin Keung,Qiao, Han,et al. Does Interval Knowledge Sharpen Forecasting Models? Evidence from China's Typical Ports[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,2018,17(2):467-483. |
APA | Huang, Anqiang,Lai, Kin Keung,Qiao, Han,Wang, Shouyang,&Zhang, Zhenji.(2018).Does Interval Knowledge Sharpen Forecasting Models? Evidence from China's Typical Ports.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,17(2),467-483. |
MLA | Huang, Anqiang,et al."Does Interval Knowledge Sharpen Forecasting Models? Evidence from China's Typical Ports".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING 17.2(2018):467-483. |
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