Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.022

CSpace > 系统科学研究所

	Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties
	Duan, Hongbo 1; Mo, Jianlei 2,3; Fan, Ying 4; Wang, Shouyang1,5
	2018-02-01
发表期刊	ENERGY ECONOMICS
ISSN	0140-9883
卷号	70 页码:45-60
摘要	The stringency of China's energy and climate targets in 2030 and the policy needed to realize these targets are full of controversy, mainly as a result of multiple future uncertainties. This study has developed a stochastic energy economy -environment integrated model, to assess China's energy and climate targets in 2030, with a particular focus on the carbon intensity reduction, carbon emission peaking, and non-fossil energy development. The probabilities of realizing the targets are obtained, and the nexus among different targets is explored. It's argued that carbon emission management and policy-making should be implemented from the perspective of risk management, and policy makers can take corresponding policy measures based on the degree of confidence required under multiple future uncertainties. It is found that the probabilities of realizing carbon emission-peaking target and non-fossil energy target are low, with the business-as-usual efforts, and additional policies may still be needed. More specific, carbon pricing plays a major role in curbing and peaking carbon emissions, while the policy mix of carbon pricing and non-fossil energy subsidies can peak the carbon emission with relatively low cost compared to the single carbon pricing policy. It is also found that the carbon intensity reduction target is most likely to be attained, followed by the carbon-peaking target, and then the non-fossil energy target, given the same policy efforts. This indicates that, China may not deliberately increase carbon emissions rapidly over the next decade to make the carbon emission peak as high as possible; otherwise, it may be difficult to achieve the non-fossil energy target. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	Integrated assessment model Uncertainty INDC target China Carbon emission peaking Carbon pricing Renewable energy subsidy
DOI	10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.022
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71774153] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71503242] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71403263] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71690245] ; China Scholarship Council (CSC)[201604910047]
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
WOS类目	Economics
WOS记录号	WOS:000428829100005
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/30035
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Mo, Jianlei
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environment, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England 4.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duan, Hongbo,Mo, Jianlei,Fan, Ying,et al. Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties[J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS,2018,70:45-60.
APA	Duan, Hongbo,Mo, Jianlei,Fan, Ying,&Wang, Shouyang.(2018).Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties.ENERGY ECONOMICS,70,45-60.
MLA	Duan, Hongbo,et al."Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties".ENERGY ECONOMICS 70(2018):45-60.