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Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties
Duan, Hongbo1; Mo, Jianlei2,3; Fan, Ying4; Wang, Shouyang1,5
2018-02-01
Source PublicationENERGY ECONOMICS
ISSN0140-9883
Volume70Pages:45-60
AbstractThe stringency of China's energy and climate targets in 2030 and the policy needed to realize these targets are full of controversy, mainly as a result of multiple future uncertainties. This study has developed a stochastic energy economy -environment integrated model, to assess China's energy and climate targets in 2030, with a particular focus on the carbon intensity reduction, carbon emission peaking, and non-fossil energy development. The probabilities of realizing the targets are obtained, and the nexus among different targets is explored. It's argued that carbon emission management and policy-making should be implemented from the perspective of risk management, and policy makers can take corresponding policy measures based on the degree of confidence required under multiple future uncertainties. It is found that the probabilities of realizing carbon emission-peaking target and non-fossil energy target are low, with the business-as-usual efforts, and additional policies may still be needed. More specific, carbon pricing plays a major role in curbing and peaking carbon emissions, while the policy mix of carbon pricing and non-fossil energy subsidies can peak the carbon emission with relatively low cost compared to the single carbon pricing policy. It is also found that the carbon intensity reduction target is most likely to be attained, followed by the carbon-peaking target, and then the non-fossil energy target, given the same policy efforts. This indicates that, China may not deliberately increase carbon emissions rapidly over the next decade to make the carbon emission peak as high as possible; otherwise, it may be difficult to achieve the non-fossil energy target. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordIntegrated assessment model Uncertainty INDC target China Carbon emission peaking Carbon pricing Renewable energy subsidy
DOI10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.022
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[71774153] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71503242] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71403263] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71690245] ; China Scholarship Council (CSC)[201604910047]
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000428829100005
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/30035
Collection系统科学研究所
Affiliation1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environment, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England
4.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100191, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Duan, Hongbo,Mo, Jianlei,Fan, Ying,et al. Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties[J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS,2018,70:45-60.
APA Duan, Hongbo,Mo, Jianlei,Fan, Ying,&Wang, Shouyang.(2018).Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties.ENERGY ECONOMICS,70,45-60.
MLA Duan, Hongbo,et al."Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties".ENERGY ECONOMICS 70(2018):45-60.
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