KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
How efficient are China's macroeconomic forecasts? Evidences from a new forecasting evaluation approach | |
Sun, Yuying; Wang, Shouyang; Zhang, Xun1 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | ECONOMIC MODELLING |
ISSN | 0264-9993 |
卷号 | 68页码:506-513 |
摘要 | Surveys, which are designed to collect data and include professional forecasts of macroeconomic variables, are of great interest to central banks and various institutions. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has attracted considerable attention in literature. However, empirical studies focusing on China are limited. This paper firstly proposes a new approach to test forecasts' accuracy and efficiency under asymmetric loss function by using a unique dataset from surveys conducted by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in China. It is found that forecasters of the four macroeconomic variables (i.e., GDP growth rate, CPI, exports and imports) partially utilize new information and publicly available information under LINEX loss function when they update the forecasts, which are similar to those under quadratic loss function. Besides, a new finding in this paper is that over-smoothing hardly exists in the forecasts of GDP growth rate and CPI in China, which is different from the results in developed countries. Our findings suggest clear areas of opportunity to improve the accuracy of the forecasts, such as considering the negative autocorrelation found in forecast revisions of CPI. |
关键词 | Forecast revisions Macroeconomic forecast Unbalanced three-dimensional panel data Surveys LINEX asymmetric loss function |
DOI | 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.08.028 |
语种 | 英语 |
资助项目 | Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; Center of National Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences (Research Project of Global Macroeconomic Monitoring, Forecasting and Policy Simulation Platform) |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics |
WOS类目 | Economics |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423247800040 |
出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/29482 |
专题 | 系统科学研究所 |
通讯作者 | Zhang, Xun |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, 55 Zhongguancun East Rd, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting, Sci, 55 Zhongguancun East Rd, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Yuying,Wang, Shouyang,Zhang, Xun. How efficient are China's macroeconomic forecasts? Evidences from a new forecasting evaluation approach[J]. ECONOMIC MODELLING,2018,68:506-513. |
APA | Sun, Yuying,Wang, Shouyang,&Zhang, Xun.(2018).How efficient are China's macroeconomic forecasts? Evidences from a new forecasting evaluation approach.ECONOMIC MODELLING,68,506-513. |
MLA | Sun, Yuying,et al."How efficient are China's macroeconomic forecasts? Evidences from a new forecasting evaluation approach".ECONOMIC MODELLING 68(2018):506-513. |
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