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A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors
Liu, Xiuli1,2; Moreno, Blanca3; Salome Garcia, Ana3
2016-11-15
Source PublicationENERGY
ISSN0360-5442
Volume115Pages:1042-1054
AbstractA combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-10 model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KeywordPrimary energy consumption Combined forecasting model Input-output Grey methods
DOI10.1016/j.energy.2016.09.017
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[70701034] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71173210] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61273208] ; Energy Foundation (Research on key mechanism and institution for sustainable energy development in China)[G-1306-18458] ; Jose Castillejo Outgoing International Fellowship of the Spanish Government- Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport[CAS12/00159]
WOS Research AreaThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS SubjectThermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS IDWOS:000388542300090
PublisherPERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
Citation statistics
Cited Times:28[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/24276
Collection系统科学研究所
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Zhongguancun East Rd 55, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
2.Univ Illinois, Reg Econ Applicat Lab, 607 S Mathews,318, Urbana, IL 61801 USA
3.Univ Oviedo, Reg Econ Lab, Fac Econ & Business, Dept Appl Econ, Campus Cristo S-N, E-33006 Oviedo, Spain
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Xiuli,Moreno, Blanca,Salome Garcia, Ana. A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors[J]. ENERGY,2016,115:1042-1054.
APA Liu, Xiuli,Moreno, Blanca,&Salome Garcia, Ana.(2016).A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors.ENERGY,115,1042-1054.
MLA Liu, Xiuli,et al."A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors".ENERGY 115(2016):1042-1054.
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