A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2016.09.017

CSpace > 系统科学研究所

	A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors
	Liu, Xiuli1,2 ; Moreno, Blanca 3; Salome Garcia, Ana 3
	2016-11-15
发表期刊	ENERGY
ISSN	0360-5442
卷号	115 页码:1042-1054
摘要	A combined forecast of Grey forecasting method and neural network back propagation model, which is called Grey Neural Network and Input-Output Combined Forecasting Model (GNF-10 model), is proposed. A real case of energy consumption forecast is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The GNF-IO model predicts coal, crude oil, natural gas, renewable and nuclear primary energy consumption volumes by Spain's 36 sub-sectors from 2010 to 2015 according to three different GDP growth scenarios (optimistic, baseline and pessimistic). Model test shows that the proposed model has higher simulation and forecasting accuracy on energy consumption than Grey models separately and other combination methods. The forecasts indicate that the primary energies as coal, crude oil and natural gas will represent on average the 83.6% percent of the total of primary energy consumption, raising concerns about security of supply and energy cost and adding risk for some industrial production processes. Thus, Spanish industry must speed up its transition to an energy-efficiency economy, achieving a cost reduction and increase in the level of self-supply. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词	Primary energy consumption Combined forecasting model Input-output Grey methods
DOI	10.1016/j.energy.2016.09.017
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[70701034] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71173210] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61273208] ; Energy Foundation (Research on key mechanism and institution for sustainable energy development in China)[G-1306-18458] ; Jose Castillejo Outgoing International Fellowship of the Spanish Government- Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport[CAS12/00159]
WOS研究方向	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS类目	Thermodynamics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS记录号	WOS:000388542300090
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/24276
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Moreno, Blanca
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Zhongguancun East Rd 55, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Illinois, Reg Econ Applicat Lab, 607 S Mathews,318, Urbana, IL 61801 USA 3.Univ Oviedo, Reg Econ Lab, Fac Econ & Business, Dept Appl Econ, Campus Cristo S-N, E-33006 Oviedo, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Xiuli,Moreno, Blanca,Salome Garcia, Ana. A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors[J]. ENERGY,2016,115:1042-1054.
APA	Liu, Xiuli,Moreno, Blanca,&Salome Garcia, Ana.(2016).A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors.ENERGY,115,1042-1054.
MLA	Liu, Xiuli,et al."A grey neural network and input-output combined forecasting model. Primary energy consumption forecasts in Spanish economic sectors".ENERGY 115(2016):1042-1054.