Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009

CSpace > 系统科学研究所

	Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China
	Chai, Jian 1,2,3,4; Lu, Quan-Ying 1,2; Wang, Shou-Yang4 ; Lai, Kin Keung 1,2,5
	2016-10-01
发表期刊	TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	1361-9209
卷号	48 页码:112-124
摘要	In this paper, we first analyze the historical trends in road transportation energy consumption and GDP in developed economies to find out the development characteristics of road energy consumption. The two indexes present obvious 'S' type patterns. Then, in order to explore the current status and future trend of road energy transportation in China, we employ path analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of the factors related to road transportation energy consumption. Next, we adopt the BMA model to select the core factors related to road transportation energy consumption in China, and on the basis of the model selection as well as univariate (ETS & ARIMA models) and multivariate (multiple regression) models, the road transportation energy consumption is analyzed and forecast. The results showed that the road transportation energy consumption rises by 0.33 percent for every percent increase in GDP and by 1.26 percentage points for every percent increase in urbanization. The road transportation energy consumption in China is expected to reach around 226181.1 ktoe by the end of 2015, and about 347,363 ktoe by 2020. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词	Road transportation energy consumption Trend analysis Path analysis BMA ETS ARIMA
DOI	10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[71473155] ; New Star of Youth Science and Technology Plan Project in Shaanxi Province, China[2016KJXX-14] ; Shaanxi Normal University College Basic Scientific Research Special Support Project[14SZTZ03]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Transportation
WOS类目	Environmental Studies ; Transportation ; Transportation Science & Technology
WOS记录号	WOS:000384853700009
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/23791
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Lu, Quan-Ying
作者单位	1.Shaanxi Normal Univ, Int Business Sch, 199 South Changan Rd, Xian 710062, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.Shaanxi Normal Univ, Inst Cross Proc Percept & Control, Xian 710119, Peoples R China 3.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710071, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 5.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chai, Jian,Lu, Quan-Ying,Wang, Shou-Yang,et al. Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China[J]. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT,2016,48:112-124.
APA	Chai, Jian,Lu, Quan-Ying,Wang, Shou-Yang,&Lai, Kin Keung.(2016).Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China.TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT,48,112-124.
MLA	Chai, Jian,et al."Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China".TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART D-TRANSPORT AND ENVIRONMENT 48(2016):112-124.