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Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model
Chen, Quanrun1; Dietzenbacher, Erik2; Los, Bart2; Yang, Cuihong3
2016-11-01
Source PublicationECONOMIC MODELLING
ISSN0264-9993
Volume58Pages:52-63
AbstractIn this study, we propose a new semi-closed input-output model, which reconciles input-output analysis with modern consumption theories. It can simulate changes in household consumption behavior when exogenous stimulus policies lead to higher disposable income levels. It is useful for quantifying the short-run effects of fiscal stimuli on GDP and its industry-level value added components. We illustrate the use of the model by estimating the short-run effect of the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package on China's GDP. Our results show that this stimulus package might have led to an increase in GDP of more than 3 trillion yuan, which is 9.5% of China's GDP in 2008. This result compares well to actual changes in GDP as observed in the years immediately after the introduction of the package. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KeywordInput-output model Household consumption Multiplier effect Government spending
DOI10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.016
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[71201162] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71125005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[61273208]
WOS Research AreaBusiness & Economics
WOS SubjectEconomics
WOS IDWOS:000382593000005
PublisherELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
Citation statistics
Cited Times:7[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/23511
Collection系统科学研究所
Affiliation1.Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Stat, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, POB 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Chen, Quanrun,Dietzenbacher, Erik,Los, Bart,et al. Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model[J]. ECONOMIC MODELLING,2016,58:52-63.
APA Chen, Quanrun,Dietzenbacher, Erik,Los, Bart,&Yang, Cuihong.(2016).Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model.ECONOMIC MODELLING,58,52-63.
MLA Chen, Quanrun,et al."Modeling the short-run effect of fiscal stimuli on GDP: A new semi-closed input-output model".ECONOMIC MODELLING 58(2016):52-63.
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