Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0162481

CSpace > 应用数学研究所

	Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City
	Gao, Xiaolei 1; Wei, Jianjian 1; Lei, Hao 1; Xu, Pengcheng2 ; Cowling, Benjamin J.3; Li, Yuguo 1
	2016-09-09
发表期刊	PLOS ONE
ISSN	1932-6203
卷号	11 期号:9 页码:20
摘要	Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks, especially they are transmitted by the airborne route, before new vaccines can be made available. Airborne diseases may spread rapidly as people visit different indoor environments and are in frequent contact with others. We constructed a simple indoor contact model for an ideal city with 7 million people and 3 million indoor spaces, and estimated the probability and duration of contact between any two individuals during one day. To do this, we used data from actual censuses, social behavior surveys, building surveys, and ventilation measurements in Hong Kong to define eight population groups and seven indoor location groups. Our indoor contact model was integrated with an existing epidemiological Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model to estimate disease spread and with the Wells-Riley equation to calculate local infection risks, resulting in an integrated indoor transmission network model. This model was used to estimate the probability of an infected individual infecting others in the city and to study the disease transmission dynamics. We predicted the infection probability of each sub-population under different ventilation systems in each location type in the case of a hypothetical airborne disease outbreak, which is assumed to have the same natural history and infectiousness as smallpox. We compared the effectiveness of controlling ventilation in each location type with other intervention strategies. We conclude that increasing building ventilation rates using methods such as natural ventilation in classrooms, offices, and homes is a relatively effective strategy for airborne diseases in a large city.
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0162481
语种	英语
资助项目	Research Grants Council[17205014] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51278440] ; General Research Fund grant from RGC[17205014] ; NSFC grant[51278440]
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000383255900111
出版者	PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/23388
专题	应用数学研究所
通讯作者	Wei, Jianjian
作者单位	1.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Mech Engn, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Appl Math, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Hong Kong, Sch Publ Hlth, WHO Collaborating Ctr Infect Dis Epidemiol & Cont, Pokfulam Rd, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao, Xiaolei,Wei, Jianjian,Lei, Hao,et al. Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City[J]. PLOS ONE,2016,11(9):20.
APA	Gao, Xiaolei,Wei, Jianjian,Lei, Hao,Xu, Pengcheng,Cowling, Benjamin J.,&Li, Yuguo.(2016).Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City.PLOS ONE,11(9),20.
MLA	Gao, Xiaolei,et al."Building Ventilation as an Effective Disease Intervention Strategy in a Dense Indoor Contact Network in an Ideal City".PLOS ONE 11.9(2016):20.