Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port

doi:10.1142/S0219622016500085

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	Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port
	Huang, Anqiang 1; Qiao, Han 2; Wang, Shouyang3 ; Liu, John 4
	2016-03-01
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING
ISSN	0219-6220
卷号	15 期号:2 页码:387-401
摘要	Expert knowledge has been proved by substantial studies to be contributory to higher forecasting performance; meanwhile, its application is criticized and opposed by some groups for biases and inconsistency inherent in experts' subjective judgment. This paper proposes a new approach to improving forecasting performance, which takes advantage of expert knowledge by constructing a constraint equation rather than directly adjusting the predicted values by experts. For the comparison purpose, the proposed approach, together with several widely used models including ARIMA, BP-ANN and the judgment model (JM), is applied to forecasting the container throughput of Guangzhou Port, which is one of the most important ports of China. Forecasting performances of the above models are compared and the results clearly show superiority of the proposed approach over its rivals, which implies that expert knowledge will make positive contribution as long as it is used in a right way.
关键词	Container throughput forecast expert knowledge subjective judgment
DOI	10.1142/S0219622016500085
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71373262] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390330] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390331] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390334] ; Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities[B15JB00040]
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS类目	Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Information Systems ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS记录号	WOS:000372548000007
出版者	WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/22349
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Qiao, Han
作者单位	1.Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.City Univ Hong Kong, Coll Business, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Anqiang,Qiao, Han,Wang, Shouyang,et al. Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,2016,15(2):387-401.
APA	Huang, Anqiang,Qiao, Han,Wang, Shouyang,&Liu, John.(2016).Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,15(2),387-401.
MLA	Huang, Anqiang,et al."Improving Forecasting Performance by Exploiting Expert Knowledge: Evidence from Guangzhou Port".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING 15.2(2016):387-401.