Data characteristic analysis and model selection for container throughput forecasting within a decomposition-ensemble methodology

doi:10.1016/j.tre.2017.08.015

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	Data characteristic analysis and model selection for container throughput forecasting within a decomposition-ensemble methodology
	Xie, Gang; Zhang, Ning; Wang, Shouyang
	2017-12-01
发表期刊	TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW
ISSN	1366-5545
卷号	108 页码:160-178
摘要	In this study, a novel decomposition-ensemble methodology is proposed for container throughput forecasting. Firstly, the sample data of container throughput at ports are decomposed into several components. Secondly, the time series of the various components are thoroughly investigated to accurately capture the data characteristics. Then, an individual forecasting model is selected for each component based on the data characteristic analysis (DCA). Finally, the forecasting results are combined as an aggregated output. An empirical analysis is implemented for illustration and verification purposes. Our results suggest that proposed hybrid models can achieve better performance than other methods. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词	Container throughput Data characteristic analysis Model selection Time series forecasting Decomposition-ensemble methodology
DOI	10.1016/j.tre.2017.08.015
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71372176] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71390331] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science ; Transportation
WOS类目	Economics ; Engineering, Civil ; Operations Research & Management Science ; Transportation ; Transportation Science & Technology
WOS记录号	WOS:000417007900010
出版者	PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/137
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Xie, Gang
作者单位	Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Gang,Zhang, Ning,Wang, Shouyang. Data characteristic analysis and model selection for container throughput forecasting within a decomposition-ensemble methodology[J]. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW,2017,108:160-178.
APA	Xie, Gang,Zhang, Ning,&Wang, Shouyang.(2017).Data characteristic analysis and model selection for container throughput forecasting within a decomposition-ensemble methodology.TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW,108,160-178.
MLA	Xie, Gang,et al."Data characteristic analysis and model selection for container throughput forecasting within a decomposition-ensemble methodology".TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW 108(2017):160-178.