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Rainfall data simulation by hidden Markov model and discrete wavelet transformation
Jayawardena, A. W.1; Xu, P. C.2; Li, W. K.3
2009-10-01
发表期刊STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN1436-3240
卷号23期号:7页码:863-877
摘要In many regions, monthly (or bimonthly) rainfall data can be considered as deterministic while daily rainfall data may be treated as random. As a result, deterministic models may not sufficiently fit the daily data because of the strong stochastic nature, while stochastic models may also not reliably fit into daily rainfall time series because of the deterministic nature at the large scale (i.e. coarse scale). Although there are different approaches for simulating daily rainfall, mixing of deterministic and stochastic models (towards possible representation of both deterministic and stochastic properties) has not hitherto been proposed. An attempt is made in this study to simulate daily rainfall data by utilizing discrete wavelet transformation and hidden Markov model. We use a deterministic model to obtain large-scale data, and a stochastic model to simulate the wavelet tree coefficients. The simulated daily rainfall is obtained by inverse transformation. We then compare the accumulated simulated and accumulated observed data from the Chao Phraya Basin in Thailand. Because of the stochastic nature at the small scale, the simulated daily rainfall on a point to point comparison show deviations with the observed data. However the accumulated simulated data do show some level of agreement with the observed data.
关键词Daily rainfall Discrete wavelet transformation Hidden Markov model Expectation-maximization algorithm False nearest neighbours Phase space reconstruction
DOI10.1007/s00477-008-0264-0
语种英语
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS类目Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS记录号WOS:000270291800002
出版者SPRINGER
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/7645
专题中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者Jayawardena, A. W.
作者单位1.Publ Works Res Inst, Int Ctr Water Hazard & Risk Management, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Hong Kong, Dept Stat & Actuarial Sci, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jayawardena, A. W.,Xu, P. C.,Li, W. K.. Rainfall data simulation by hidden Markov model and discrete wavelet transformation[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2009,23(7):863-877.
APA Jayawardena, A. W.,Xu, P. C.,&Li, W. K..(2009).Rainfall data simulation by hidden Markov model and discrete wavelet transformation.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,23(7),863-877.
MLA Jayawardena, A. W.,et al."Rainfall data simulation by hidden Markov model and discrete wavelet transformation".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 23.7(2009):863-877.
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