AN INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY MAKING BASED ON EARLY WARNING THEORIES

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	AN INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY MAKING BASED ON EARLY WARNING THEORIES
	Zhang, Xun1,2 ; Zheng, Guihuan 1; Shang, Wei1 ; Xu, Shangying 1; Yang, Xiaoguang1 ; Lai, Kin Keung 3; Wang, Shou-Yang1
	2009-06-01
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING
ISSN	0219-6220
卷号	8 期号:2 页码:335-359
摘要	Macroeconomic policy making is a complex systematic process, which requires in-depth understanding of current economic situation, prediction of future economic trend, and proper policy evaluation measurements. Instruments of early warning, and policy simulation are often employed in macroeconomic policy making. However, no matter how well it is developed, any single instrument is often inadequate for policy making support, because of the gap between theories and practice. In this paper, macroeconomic early warning theories are integrated with the policy decision support concepts. Three stages are involved in the macroeconomic policy making process: monitoring, forecasting, and policy simulation. Based on this idea, an integrated alert-response framework is proposed with one corresponding module for each stage. Within this framework, not only information can be exchanged freely among these modules, but the monitoring forecasting-simulation process can run smoothly to realize timeliness and efficient policy making support. Moreover, a knowledge base is incorporated into the framework to support the economic early warning and policy making support process. Therefore, this framework is featured in integration and a final all-round report, including current economic status, future trend prediction, policy making suggestions, external information, and expert opinions, can be generated. An implementation of this framework was developed for China's macroeconomic adjustment and has been put into practice since early 2006. A case of national economic growth analysis based on the proposed framework is given to demonstrate how the framework serves for government policy making routines.
关键词	Macroeconomic policy making decision support system macroeconomic early warning
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS类目	Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence ; Computer Science, Information Systems ; Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS记录号	WOS:000267703000008
出版者	WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/7269
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Wang, Shou-Yang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Sch Math Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.City Univ Hong Kong, Dept Management Sci, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Xun,Zheng, Guihuan,Shang, Wei,et al. AN INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY MAKING BASED ON EARLY WARNING THEORIES[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,2009,8(2):335-359.
APA	Zhang, Xun.,Zheng, Guihuan.,Shang, Wei.,Xu, Shangying.,Yang, Xiaoguang.,...&Wang, Shou-Yang.(2009).AN INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY MAKING BASED ON EARLY WARNING THEORIES.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING,8(2),335-359.
MLA	Zhang, Xun,et al."AN INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK FOR MACROECONOMIC POLICY MAKING BASED ON EARLY WARNING THEORIES".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & DECISION MAKING 8.2(2009):335-359.