Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach

doi:10.1002/jtr.2512

CSpace

	Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach
	Xing, Guangyuan 1; Sun, Shaolong 2; Bi, Dan 2; Guo, Ju-e 2; Wang, Shouyang 3,4,5
	2022-01-28
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH
ISSN	1099-2340
页码	18
摘要	In this study, we propose an adaptive multiscale ensemble (AME) learning approach, which consists of variational mode decomposition (VMD) and least square support vector regression (LSSVR) for seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals. In the formulation of AME learning approach, the original tourist arrival series is decomposed into the trend, seasonal, and remaining volatility components. Then, ARIMA is used to forecast the trend component, SARIMA is used to forecast the seasonal component, and LSSVR is used to forecast the remaining volatility components. The empirical results demonstrate that our proposed AME learning approach can achieve higher forecasting accuracy.
关键词	ensemble learning least square support vector regression seasonality tourism demand forecasting variational mode decomposition
DOI	10.1002/jtr.2512
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[72101197] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[SK2021007]
WOS研究方向	Social Sciences - Other Topics
WOS类目	Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism
WOS记录号	WOS:000748176700001
出版者	WILEY
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59918
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Sun, Shaolong
作者单位	1.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Econ & Finance, Xian, Peoples R China 2.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xing, Guangyuan,Sun, Shaolong,Bi, Dan,et al. Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH,2022:18.
APA	Xing, Guangyuan,Sun, Shaolong,Bi, Dan,Guo, Ju-e,&Wang, Shouyang.(2022).Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH,18.
MLA	Xing, Guangyuan,et al."Seasonal and trend forecasting of tourist arrivals: An adaptive multiscale ensemble learning approach".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH (2022):18.