KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
| Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach | |
| Sun, Yuying1,2,3; Zhang, Jian1,3,4; Li, Xin5; Wang, Shouyang1,2,3 | |
| 2021-12-07 | |
| Source Publication | JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH
 |
| ISSN | 0047-2875 |
| Pages | 19 |
| Abstract | Existing research has shown that combination can effectively improve tourism forecasting accuracy compared with single model. However, the model uncertainty and structural instability in combination for out-of-sample tourism forecasting may influence the forecasting performance. This paper proposes a novel forecast combination approach based on time-varying jackknife model averaging (TVJMA), which can more efficiently handle structural changes and nonstationary trends in tourism data. Using Hong Kong tourism demand from five major tourism source regions as an empirical study, we investigate whether our proposed nonparametric TVJMA-based approach can improve tourism forecasting accuracy further. Empirical results show that the proposed TVJMA-based approach outperforms other competitors including single model and three combination methods in most cases. Findings indicate the outstanding performance of our method is robust to various forecasting horizons and different estimation periods. |
| Keyword | forecast combination nonparametric estimation structural changes tourism demand time-varying jackknife model averaging |
| DOI | 10.1177/00472875211061206 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Natural Science Foundation of China[72073126] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72091212] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71973116] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71601021] ; China NNSF[71988101] |
| WOS Research Area | Social Sciences - Other Topics |
| WOS Subject | Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism |
| WOS ID | WOS:000729827000001 |
| Publisher | SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59671 |
| Collection | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| Corresponding Author | Li, Xin |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.China Secur Co Ltd, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Econ & Management, 30 Xueyuan Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Jian,Li, Xin,et al. Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach[J]. JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,2021:19. |
| APA | Sun, Yuying,Zhang, Jian,Li, Xin,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach.JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH,19. |
| MLA | Sun, Yuying,et al."Forecasting Tourism Demand With a New Time-Varying Forecast Averaging Approach".JOURNAL OF TRAVEL RESEARCH (2021):19. |
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