Probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting based on non-parametric approaches and wind characteristics information

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118029

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	Probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting based on non-parametric approaches and wind characteristics information
	Heng, Jiani 1; Hong, Yongmiao 1,2; Hu, Jianming 3; Wang, Shouyang 1,2
	2022-01-15
发表期刊	APPLIED ENERGY
ISSN	0306-2619
卷号	306 页码:13
摘要	As the proportion of the total installed wind capacity continues to increase, precise probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting becoming increasingly significant for wind turbine stable function and operation management. It is worth noting that except for the intermittent nature of wind speed itself, the site dependence of wind energy and the heterogeneous nature of the distribution at different locations can also affect the results of wind speed forecasting. Considering this has often been overlooked in previous studies, this study attempts to introduce characteristic information of wind from wind farms into wind speed probabilistic forecasting. For the sake of acquiring a more rational descriptive statistical interpretation of wind speed, a variety of probability density functions for actual wind speed data are evaluated in this study. And then, Generalized Gaussian Process models are constructed via observation likelihood functions which are determined by obtained probability density functions. Beyond that, to enhance the robustness against model misspecification, a pseudo-likelihood for the Leave-One-Out cross-validation methodology is proposed for approximating the posterior in the Bayesian inference stage. Wind speed forecasts on 6-hour-ahead horizons from two wind farms in China illustrated that the appropriate mining of wind prior statistical characteristic information can contribute to improving the precision of probabilistic wind speed forecasting.
关键词	Probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting Wind characteristic information Probability density functions Generalized Gaussian process Pseudo-Likelihood
DOI	10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118029
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[7210031644] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71701053]
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Chemical
WOS记录号	WOS:000711972000002
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/59496
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Wang, Shouyang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Guangzhou Univ, Sch Econ & Stat, Guangzhou 510000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Heng, Jiani,Hong, Yongmiao,Hu, Jianming,et al. Probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting based on non-parametric approaches and wind characteristics information[J]. APPLIED ENERGY,2022,306:13.
APA	Heng, Jiani,Hong, Yongmiao,Hu, Jianming,&Wang, Shouyang.(2022).Probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting based on non-parametric approaches and wind characteristics information.APPLIED ENERGY,306,13.
MLA	Heng, Jiani,et al."Probabilistic and deterministic wind speed forecasting based on non-parametric approaches and wind characteristics information".APPLIED ENERGY 306(2022):13.