Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004

doi:10.1080/09535310802075273

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	Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004
	Chen, Xikang 1; Guo, Ju-E 2; Yang, Cuihong1
	2008
发表期刊	ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH
ISSN	0953-5314
卷号	20 期号:2 页码:139-150
摘要	China has a population of 1.3 billion and grain accordingly plays a crucial role in the Chinese economy. In this paper we suggest predicting grain output mainly by factor inputs and asset holding, and present a Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach (SIPA). The key elements of SIPA are an extended input-output model with assets, nonlinear variable coefficient forecasting equations, and using the minimum sum of the absolute values. Since 1980 we have used the approach to predict the yearly national grain output of China. The prediction lead time is more than half a year. The bumper, average, and poor harvests are accurately predicted every year. The average error rate over the period 1980-2004 is 1.9%.
关键词	Grain output prediction Systematic Integrated Prediction Approach (SIPA) extended input-output model with assets nonlinear forecasting
DOI	10.1080/09535310802075273
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
WOS类目	Economics
WOS记录号	WOS:000207466800003
出版者	ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/5946
专题	系统科学研究所
通讯作者	Chen, Xikang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Xikang,Guo, Ju-E,Yang, Cuihong. Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004[J]. ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH,2008,20(2):139-150.
APA	Chen, Xikang,Guo, Ju-E,&Yang, Cuihong.(2008).Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004.ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH,20(2),139-150.
MLA	Chen, Xikang,et al."Yearly Grain Output Predictions in China 1980-2004".ECONOMIC SYSTEMS RESEARCH 20.2(2008):139-150.