KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy | |
Duan, Hongbo1; Bao, Qin2,3; Tian, Kailan2,3; Wang, Shouyang1,2,3; Yang, Cuihong1,2,3; Cai, Zongwu4 | |
2021-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW |
ISSN | 1043-951X |
卷号 | 67页码:17 |
摘要 | Broke out at the end of 2019, the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been spreading throughout the world, leading to more than 87 million confirmed infections and 1.88 million fatalities. Motivated by this, we evaluate the economic impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on both national and industrial levels by employing quarterly computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results reveal that the epidemic may lower China's economic growth in 2020 by 3.5%, versus 4.4% for final consumption (relative to baseline). The service industry suffers the most from the outbreak, and the Accommodation-Food-Beverage service, Wholesale-Retail Trade, and Transport-Storage-Post are identified as the most vulnerable sectors, with the negative impact on output reaching as high as 14.6%. When moving to 2021, the hit to economy shrinks to 2% (1.2-2.7%), with industry estimated to be the most affected sector instead. This study indicates that implementing effective measures for preventing and controlling the epidemic and policies for post-disease economic recovery play critical role in curbing the potential economic damage. |
关键词 | COVID-19 Economic impact assessment General equilibrium modeling China |
DOI | 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101606 |
收录类别 | SCI |
语种 | 英语 |
资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874177] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71631004] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72042019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72022019] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71903186] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71673269] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72073127] |
WOS研究方向 | Business & Economics |
WOS类目 | Economics |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000652855600015 |
出版者 | ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/58723 |
专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
通讯作者 | Cai, Zongwu |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 4.Univ Kansas, Dept Econ, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Duan, Hongbo,Bao, Qin,Tian, Kailan,et al. The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy[J]. CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW,2021,67:17. |
APA | Duan, Hongbo,Bao, Qin,Tian, Kailan,Wang, Shouyang,Yang, Cuihong,&Cai, Zongwu.(2021).The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy.CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW,67,17. |
MLA | Duan, Hongbo,et al."The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy".CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW 67(2021):17. |
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