A new decomposition ensemble approach for tourism demand forecasting: Evidence from major source countries in Asia-Pacific region

doi:10.1002/jtr.2445

CSpace

	A new decomposition ensemble approach for tourism demand forecasting: Evidence from major source countries in Asia-Pacific region
	Zhang, Chengyuan 1; Jiang, Fuxin 2,3; Wang, Shouyang 2,3; Sun, Shaolong 4
	2021-03-12
发表期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH
ISSN	1099-2340
页码	14
摘要	Previous studies have shown that different market factors influence tourism demand at different timescales. Accordingly, we propose the decomposition ensemble learning approach to analyze impact of different market factors on tourism demand, and explore the potential advantages of the proposed method on forecasting tourism demand in Asia-Pacific region. By decomposing tourist arrivals with noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition, this study further explores the multiscale relationship between tourist destinations and major source countries. The empirical results show that decomposition ensemble approach performs significantly better than benchmarks in terms of the level forecasting accuracy and directional forecasting accuracy.
关键词	artificial intelligence Asia‐ Pacific region decomposition ensemble approach NA‐ MEMD tourism demand forecasting
DOI	10.1002/jtr.2445
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; Academic Excellence Foundation of BUAA for PhD Students
WOS研究方向	Social Sciences - Other Topics
WOS类目	Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism
WOS记录号	WOS:000628027800001
出版者	WILEY
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/58243
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Sun, Shaolong
作者单位	1.Beihang Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Management, Xian 710049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Chengyuan,Jiang, Fuxin,Wang, Shouyang,et al. A new decomposition ensemble approach for tourism demand forecasting: Evidence from major source countries in Asia-Pacific region[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH,2021:14.
APA	Zhang, Chengyuan,Jiang, Fuxin,Wang, Shouyang,&Sun, Shaolong.(2021).A new decomposition ensemble approach for tourism demand forecasting: Evidence from major source countries in Asia-Pacific region.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH,14.
MLA	Zhang, Chengyuan,et al."A new decomposition ensemble approach for tourism demand forecasting: Evidence from major source countries in Asia-Pacific region".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TOURISM RESEARCH (2021):14.