An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.01.007

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	An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve
	Wu, Gang 1; Fan, Ying 1; Liu, Lan-Cui 1,2; Wei, Yi-Ming 1
	2008-04-01
发表期刊	ENERGY POLICY
ISSN	0301-4215
卷号	36 期号:4 页码:1470-1478
摘要	The world's future oil price is affected by many factors. The challenge, therefore, is how to select optimal stockpile acquisition strategies to minimize the cost of maintaining a reserve. This paper provides a new method for analyzing this problem using an uncertain dynamic programming model to analyze stockpile acquisition strategies for strategic petroleum reserve. Using this model, we quantify the impact of uncertain world oil price on optimal stockpile acquisition strategies of China's strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2007-2010 and 2011-2020. Our results show that the future stockpile acquisition is related to oil prices and their probability and, if not considering the occurrence of oil supply shortage, China should at least purchase 25 million barrels when world oil price is at an optimal level. The optimal price of stockpile acquisition of every year has a stronger relationship with the probability of high price; and the optimal expected price and size of stockpile acquisition is different in each year. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词	strategic petroleum reserve uncertain dynamic programming model stockpile acquisition strategies
DOI	10.1016/j.enpol.2008.01.007
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:000254965800021
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/5809
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Wei, Yi-Ming
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, IPM, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Gang,Fan, Ying,Liu, Lan-Cui,et al. An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve[J]. ENERGY POLICY,2008,36(4):1470-1478.
APA	Wu, Gang,Fan, Ying,Liu, Lan-Cui,&Wei, Yi-Ming.(2008).An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve.ENERGY POLICY,36(4),1470-1478.
MLA	Wu, Gang,et al."An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve".ENERGY POLICY 36.4(2008):1470-1478.