Alternative TitleA Dynamic Growth Rate Model and Its Application in Global COVID-19 Epidemic Analysis
胡云鹤1; 孔京1; 杨路1; 王昕雨1; 张一2; 戴彧虹3; 杨周旺1
Source Publication应用数学学报
Other AbstractThis paper proposes a simple,flexible and widely applied dynamic growth rate model to analyze the characteristics and the trend of global outbreak of COVID-19.Firstly,based on the ordinary differential equation for infectious diseases,the dynamic growth rate model is derived and further discussed.Secondly,this paper selects a two-parameter power function as the proper fitting function of the dynamic growth rate by using epidemic data of COVID-19 in China,and test the generality of the model by using epidemic data of SARS in China.Thirdly,this paper divides the global COVID-19 outbreak into three stages and contrast epidemic situation of foreign countries with that of China.Finally,the dynamic model is utilized to predict the inflection points of countries facing serious outbreak and forecast the future trend of existing infected case number,based on which a concise analysis of epidemic peak and end phase is provided.The results show that whether the prevention and control measures are timely and effective determines the epidemic trend,while most countries have not made good use of the precious period that China has strived for the world.Moreover,if the status maintained,it is not optimistic to expect the inflection points of those countries to come in several weeks or even months.
KeywordCOVID-19 global outbreak existing infected case number dynamic growth rate inflection point 新型冠状病毒 海外疫情 现存病例数 动态增长率 拐点
Indexed ByCSCD
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Document Type期刊论文
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GB/T 7714
胡云鹤,孔京,杨路,等. 动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析[J]. 应用数学学报,2020,43(2):452-467.
APA 胡云鹤.,孔京.,杨路.,王昕雨.,张一.,...&杨周旺.(2020).动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析.应用数学学报,43(2),452-467.
MLA 胡云鹤,et al."动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析".应用数学学报 43.2(2020):452-467.
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