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 动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析 Alternative Title A Dynamic Growth Rate Model and Its Application in Global COVID-19 Epidemic Analysis 胡云鹤1; 孔京1; 杨路1; 王昕雨1; 张一2; 戴彧虹3; 杨周旺1 2020 Source Publication 应用数学学报 ISSN 0254-3079 Volume 43Issue:2Pages:452-467 Abstract 本文提出简单灵活、广泛适用的动态增长率模型,对海外重点国家的新冠肺炎疫情发展特点和趋势进行了分析.首先,从传染病常微分方程出发,推导并建立动态增长率模型.其次,基于中国新冠疫情数据选择两参数幂函数作为动态增长率的拟合函数,利用中国SARS数据验证了模型可推广性.随后将海外新冠疫情发展分为三个阶段,并与中国进行对比分析.最后,对海外重点国家的拐点做出预测,给出现存病例数未来的变化情况,同时对疫情高峰、尾声等进行了简单分析.结果显示,防控措施的及时性和有效性将决定疫情走向,多数海外国家并没有利用好中国为世界争取的宝贵时间,如果维持现有防控水平,多国拐点将在很久后到来,情况不容乐观. Other Abstract This paper proposes a simple,flexible and widely applied dynamic growth rate model to analyze the characteristics and the trend of global outbreak of COVID-19.Firstly,based on the ordinary differential equation for infectious diseases,the dynamic growth rate model is derived and further discussed.Secondly,this paper selects a two-parameter power function as the proper fitting function of the dynamic growth rate by using epidemic data of COVID-19 in China,and test the generality of the model by using epidemic data of SARS in China.Thirdly,this paper divides the global COVID-19 outbreak into three stages and contrast epidemic situation of foreign countries with that of China.Finally,the dynamic model is utilized to predict the inflection points of countries facing serious outbreak and forecast the future trend of existing infected case number,based on which a concise analysis of epidemic peak and end phase is provided.The results show that whether the prevention and control measures are timely and effective determines the epidemic trend,while most countries have not made good use of the precious period that China has strived for the world.Moreover,if the status maintained,it is not optimistic to expect the inflection points of those countries to come in several weeks or even months. Keyword COVID-19 global outbreak existing infected case number dynamic growth rate inflection point 新型冠状病毒 海外疫情 现存病例数 动态增长率 拐点 Indexed By CSCD Language 中文 CSCD ID CSCD:6819645 Citation statistics Document Type 期刊论文 Identifier http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/57734 Collection 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 Affiliation 1.中国科学技术大学2.北京大数据研究院3.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 Recommended CitationGB/T 7714 胡云鹤,孔京,杨路,等. 动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析[J]. 应用数学学报,2020,43(2):452-467. APA 胡云鹤.,孔京.,杨路.,王昕雨.,张一.,...&杨周旺.(2020).动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析.应用数学学报,43(2),452-467. MLA 胡云鹤,et al."动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析".应用数学学报 43.2(2020):452-467.
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