动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析

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	动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析
其他题名	A Dynamic Growth Rate Model and Its Application in Global COVID-19 Epidemic Analysis
	胡云鹤 1; 孔京 1; 杨路 1; 王昕雨 1; 张一 2; 戴彧虹 3; 杨周旺 1
	2020
发表期刊	应用数学学报
ISSN	0254-3079
卷号	43 期号:2 页码:452-467
摘要	本文提出简单灵活、广泛适用的动态增长率模型,对海外重点国家的新冠肺炎疫情发展特点和趋势进行了分析.首先,从传染病常微分方程出发,推导并建立动态增长率模型.其次,基于中国新冠疫情数据选择两参数幂函数作为动态增长率的拟合函数,利用中国SARS数据验证了模型可推广性.随后将海外新冠疫情发展分为三个阶段,并与中国进行对比分析.最后,对海外重点国家的拐点做出预测,给出现存病例数未来的变化情况,同时对疫情高峰、尾声等进行了简单分析.结果显示,防控措施的及时性和有效性将决定疫情走向,多数海外国家并没有利用好中国为世界争取的宝贵时间,如果维持现有防控水平,多国拐点将在很久后到来,情况不容乐观.
其他摘要	This paper proposes a simple,flexible and widely applied dynamic growth rate model to analyze the characteristics and the trend of global outbreak of COVID-19.Firstly,based on the ordinary differential equation for infectious diseases,the dynamic growth rate model is derived and further discussed.Secondly,this paper selects a two-parameter power function as the proper fitting function of the dynamic growth rate by using epidemic data of COVID-19 in China,and test the generality of the model by using epidemic data of SARS in China.Thirdly,this paper divides the global COVID-19 outbreak into three stages and contrast epidemic situation of foreign countries with that of China.Finally,the dynamic model is utilized to predict the inflection points of countries facing serious outbreak and forecast the future trend of existing infected case number,based on which a concise analysis of epidemic peak and end phase is provided.The results show that whether the prevention and control measures are timely and effective determines the epidemic trend,while most countries have not made good use of the precious period that China has strived for the world.Moreover,if the status maintained,it is not optimistic to expect the inflection points of those countries to come in several weeks or even months.
关键词	COVID-19 global outbreak existing infected case number dynamic growth rate inflection point 新型冠状病毒海外疫情现存病例数动态增长率拐点
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6819645
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/57734
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
作者单位	1.中国科学技术大学 2.北京大数据研究院 3.中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	胡云鹤,孔京,杨路,等. 动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析[J]. 应用数学学报,2020,43(2):452-467.
APA	胡云鹤.,孔京.,杨路.,王昕雨.,张一.,...&杨周旺.(2020).动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析.应用数学学报,43(2),452-467.
MLA	胡云鹤,et al."动态增长率模型与海外新冠疫情分析".应用数学学报 43.2(2020):452-467.