Empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2006.07.001

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	Empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China
	Wei, Yi-Ming 1,2; Wu, Gang 1,2; Fan, Ying 1,3; Liu, Lan-Cui 1,2
	2008-03-01
发表期刊	ENERGY ECONOMICS
ISSN	0140-9883
卷号	30 期号:2 页码:290-302
摘要	The Chinese government began to prepare for the establishment of strategic petroleum reserve in March 2004. Therefore, answering the question of what level of strategic petroleum reserve would be suitable for China's future economic development becomes essential. Using a decision tree model based on a cost function, this paper quantities China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2005-2020. This approach provides a methodology reference for further quantified discussion on China's SPR. Our results show that: for economic development and security of the energy supply, the strategic petroleum reserve should be the equivalent of 30-60 days of net oil import for an optimal solution, when the oil price is $ 50/bbl; with a reserve of an equivalent of 60-90 days of net oil import to have an optimal solution when oil price is $ 20-35/bbl. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) loss of GDP decision tree model
DOI	10.1016/j.eneco.2006.07.001
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
WOS类目	Economics
WOS记录号	WOS:000252784500006
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/5482
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Wei, Yi-Ming
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China 2.Univ Sci & Technol China, Sch Business, Hefei 230026, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei, Yi-Ming,Wu, Gang,Fan, Ying,et al. Empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China[J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS,2008,30(2):290-302.
APA	Wei, Yi-Ming,Wu, Gang,Fan, Ying,&Liu, Lan-Cui.(2008).Empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China.ENERGY ECONOMICS,30(2),290-302.
MLA	Wei, Yi-Ming,et al."Empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China".ENERGY ECONOMICS 30.2(2008):290-302.