Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach

doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104208

CSpace

	Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach
	Xie, Gang 1; Qian, Yatong 1,2; Wang, Shouyang 1
	2021-02-01
发表期刊	TOURISM MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0261-5177
卷号	82 页码:10
摘要	After more than ten years of exponential development, the growth rate of cruise tourist in China is slowing down. There is increasingly financial risk of investing in homeports, cruise ships and promotional activities. Therefore, forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand is a prerequisite for investment decision-making and planning. In order to enhance forecasting performance, a least squares support vector regression model with gravitational search algorithm (LSSVR-GSA) is proposed for forecasting cruise tourism demand with big data, which are search query data (SQD) from Baidu and economic indexes. In the proposed model, hyper-parameters of the LSSVR model are optimized with GSA. By comparing these models with various settings, we find that LSSVR-GSA with selected mobile keywords and economic indexes can achieve the highest forecasting performance. The results indicate the proposed framework of the methodology is effective and big data can be helpful predictors for forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand.
关键词	Cruise Big data Gravitational search algorithm Tourism demand forecasting
DOI	10.1016/j.tourman.2020.104208
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71771207] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71601021] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, CAS
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Social Sciences - Other Topics ; Business & Economics
WOS类目	Environmental Studies ; Hospitality, Leisure, Sport & Tourism ; Management
WOS记录号	WOS:000571686500006
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/52215
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Xie, Gang
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, MDIS, CFS, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,Wang, Shouyang. Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach[J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT,2021,82:10.
APA	Xie, Gang,Qian, Yatong,&Wang, Shouyang.(2021).Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach.TOURISM MANAGEMENT,82,10.
MLA	Xie, Gang,et al."Forecasting Chinese cruise tourism demand with big data: An optimized machine learning approach".TOURISM MANAGEMENT 82(2021):10.