KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
| Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures | |
| Guan, Dabo1,2; Wang, Daoping3; Hallegatte, Stephane4; Davis, Steven J.5; Huo, Jingwen1; Li, Shuping6; Bai, Yangchun6; Lei, Tianyang1; Xue, Qianyu6; Coffman, D'Maris2; Cheng, Danyang1; Chen, Peipei7; Liang, Xi8; Xu, Bing1,9; Lu, Xiaosheng10; Wang, Shouyang11; Hubacek, Klaus12; Gong, Peng1,9 | |
| 2020-06-03 | |
| Source Publication | NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
 |
| ISSN | 2397-3374 |
| Pages | 13 |
| Abstract | Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries. Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[91846301] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41629501] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41921005] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2016YFA0600104] ; Czech Science Foundation under the project VEENEX (GACR)[16-17978S] ; World Bank Group ; Tsinghua University Initiative Scientific Research Program |
| WOS Research Area | Psychology ; Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Neurosciences & Neurology |
| WOS Subject | Psychology, Biological ; Multidisciplinary Sciences ; Neurosciences ; Psychology, Experimental |
| WOS ID | WOS:000538496100001 |
| Publisher | NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51555 |
| Collection | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| Corresponding Author | Guan, Dabo |
| Affiliation | 1.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.UCL, Bartlett Sch Construct & Project Management, London, England 3.Shanghai Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Urban & Reg Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China 4.World Bank, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA 5.Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA USA 6.Shandong Univ, Inst Blue & Green Dev, Weihai Inst Interdisciplinary Res, Weihai, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Sci & Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China 8.Univ Edinburgh, Business Sch, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 9.Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Hlth Cities, Inst China Sustainable Urbanizat, Beijing, Peoples R China 10.Spark Ventures, London, England 11.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 12.Univ Groningen, Integrated Res Energy Environm & Soc IREES, Groningen, Netherlands |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Guan, Dabo,Wang, Daoping,Hallegatte, Stephane,et al. Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures[J]. NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR,2020:13. |
| APA | Guan, Dabo.,Wang, Daoping.,Hallegatte, Stephane.,Davis, Steven J..,Huo, Jingwen.,...&Gong, Peng.(2020).Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures.NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR,13. |
| MLA | Guan, Dabo,et al."Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures".NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR (2020):13. |
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