KMS Of Academy of mathematics and systems sciences, CAS
| Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line | |
| Song, Kai1,2; Gao, Yiran3; Shi, Jian1,2 | |
| 2020-06-01 | |
| Source Publication | PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
 |
| ISSN | 0378-4371 |
| Volume | 547Pages:8 |
| Abstract | The paper presents a gamma process based model for the total points processes of NBA basketball matches. This model obtains a useful formula for the in-play prediction. What is more, we employ the bookmaker's betting line to adjust the original gamma process model. The out-of-sample forecasting performances are evaluated, and more profoundly, this model can produce a positive return on the over-under betting market. Besides, our model has an application in monitoring the betting market, which may be useful to bettors. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. |
| Keyword | Sports science NBA In-play predictions Gamma process The total points process |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.physa.2020.124411 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| WOS Research Area | Physics |
| WOS Subject | Physics, Multidisciplinary |
| WOS ID | WOS:000528206900022 |
| Publisher | ELSEVIER |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51382 |
| Collection | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| Corresponding Author | Shi, Jian |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Beijing StatusWin Lottery Operat Technol Ltd, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Song, Kai,Gao, Yiran,Shi, Jian. Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line[J]. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS,2020,547:8. |
| APA | Song, Kai,Gao, Yiran,&Shi, Jian.(2020).Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line.PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS,547,8. |
| MLA | Song, Kai,et al."Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line".PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS 547(2020):8. |
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