Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2020.124411

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	Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line
	Song, Kai 1,2; Gao, Yiran 3; Shi, Jian 1,2
	2020-06-01
发表期刊	PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS
ISSN	0378-4371
卷号	547 页码:8
摘要	The paper presents a gamma process based model for the total points processes of NBA basketball matches. This model obtains a useful formula for the in-play prediction. What is more, we employ the bookmaker's betting line to adjust the original gamma process model. The out-of-sample forecasting performances are evaluated, and more profoundly, this model can produce a positive return on the over-under betting market. Besides, our model has an application in monitoring the betting market, which may be useful to bettors. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Sports science NBA In-play predictions Gamma process The total points process
DOI	10.1016/j.physa.2020.124411
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physics
WOS类目	Physics, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000528206900022
出版者	ELSEVIER
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/51382
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Shi, Jian
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Math Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Beijing StatusWin Lottery Operat Technol Ltd, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Song, Kai,Gao, Yiran,Shi, Jian. Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line[J]. PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS,2020,547:8.
APA	Song, Kai,Gao, Yiran,&Shi, Jian.(2020).Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line.PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS,547,8.
MLA	Song, Kai,et al."Making real-time predictions for NBA basketball games by combining the historical data and bookmaker's betting line".PHYSICA A-STATISTICAL MECHANICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS 547(2020):8.