Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population
Liu, Qing1; Liu, Xiuli2,3,4
AbstractThis paper explores the impacts of the universal two-child policy on Beijing's population in the long term. It gives a detail estimation of Beijing population considering the latest fertility and immigration policy and can help related government department management population. The cohortcomponent method based on a net migration was applied to project population by age for Beijing from 2020 to 2050 in four fertility scenarios. The innovation is the estimation method of the mortality rate with the life table linked with life expectancy. The results show that, though the basic development trend of Beijing's population will not change essentially under the universal two-child policy, low birth rate and aging problems will be improved. Compared with the partial policy relaxation, the total population will be 876,478 persons more than that in 2050, the share of population aged 0-14 will increase 1.1 percentage points, and the aged dependency ratio will decrease 1.96 percentage points. Some measures should be taken to encourage more couples to have a second child and introduce more young talents to promote Beijing's prosperity.
KeywordAge structure Beijing cohort-component population projection universal two-child policy
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[71874184] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71642006] ; Key Deployment Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS Research AreaMathematics
WOS SubjectMathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
WOS IDWOS:000527528200007
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorLiu, Xiuli
Affiliation1.Southwest Univ, High Sch, Chongqing 400700, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Qing,Liu, Xiuli. Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2020:18.
APA Liu, Qing,&Liu, Xiuli.(2020).Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,18.
MLA Liu, Qing,et al."Evaluating the Impacts of Universal Two-Child Policy on Beijing's Population".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2020):18.
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