Performance evaluation and prediction of the integrated circuit industry in China: A hybrid method

doi:10.1016/j.seps.2019.05.003

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	Performance evaluation and prediction of the integrated circuit industry in China: A hybrid method
	Zhou, Xiaoyang 1,2; Chen, Hao 1; Chai, Jian 3; Wang, Shouyang 2; Lev, Benjamin 4
	2020-03-01
发表期刊	SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES
ISSN	0038-0121
卷号	69 页码:12
摘要	Since the "ZTE ban", the development of the integrated circuit (IC) industry has attracted wide attention, especially in China. The performance evaluation and prediction of the IC industry is of great significance for promoting the development of this industry. In this paper, a hybrid method is proposed to study the performance of the IC industry from the perspectives of evaluation and prediction, which is unique as it evaluates the performance at past, current and future terms simultaneously. Firstly, a dynamic data envelopment analysis model is used to explore the performances of the IC industry between China and the United States from 2008 to 2017. Furthermore, in order to figure out the main sources of the inefficiency, the projection analysis is implemented based on the performance scores. Then, the grey model GM(1, 1) is employed to predicted the performance of China's IC industry from 2018 to 2022, so as to point out the progressive direction for the future development of the industry. The empirical results show that: (1) as far as performance is concerned, there is a significant gap between China and the United States in the IC industry during 2008-2017, among which the most obvious gap is occurring in "IC packaging & testing", followed by "IC design" and "wafer fabrication"; (2) the primary cause of the low performance in China's IC industry is the redundancy of the inputs, especially in "IC packaging & testing", and the redundancy problem of labour investment is found to be the most serious; (3) according to the predicted results, the IC industry in China will steadily increase in terms of the performance scores in general, and the performance improvement of "IC packaging & testing" is relatively obvious, while the other two categories have a slight range of growth. Finally, the policy implications of improving the performance of the IC industry are put forward.
关键词	Dynamic DEA Projection analysis Grey model Integrated circuit industry
DOI	10.1016/j.seps.2019.05.003
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[71871175] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71401093] ; Research Center for Systems Science & Enterprise Development[Xq16B01] ; Scientific Research Foundation of Xidian University[1018-10251180016]
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS类目	Economics ; Management ; Operations Research & Management Science
WOS记录号	WOS:000509475400024
出版者	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/50542
专题	中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院
通讯作者	Zhou, Xiaoyang
作者单位	1.Shaanxi Normal Univ, Int Business Sch, Xian 710119, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Xidian Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Xian 710126, Peoples R China 4.Drexel Univ, LeBow Coll Business, Decis Sci Dept, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Xiaoyang,Chen, Hao,Chai, Jian,et al. Performance evaluation and prediction of the integrated circuit industry in China: A hybrid method[J]. SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES,2020,69:12.
APA	Zhou, Xiaoyang,Chen, Hao,Chai, Jian,Wang, Shouyang,&Lev, Benjamin.(2020).Performance evaluation and prediction of the integrated circuit industry in China: A hybrid method.SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES,69,12.
MLA	Zhou, Xiaoyang,et al."Performance evaluation and prediction of the integrated circuit industry in China: A hybrid method".SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING SCIENCES 69(2020):12.